Covid-19: What can we take from daily statistics at Basildon and Thurrock University Hospitals?

IT has sometimes been very hard to be positive when looking at the daily coronavirus statistics from Basildon and Thurrock University Hospitals.

The hospital has been the worst-hit from the coronavirus in Essex and was at one stage earlier this month, the worst-hit in the whole of the East of England.

It has been confirmed there have been 222 patient coronavirus-related deaths at the trust according to the latest figures from NHS England (26 April).

Although we understand the importance of reporting on recovery rates at YT, these are unfortunately yet to be provided by the government.

Basildon and Thurrock University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust serves the population of Basildon and Thurrock in south west Essex, plus residents of the neighbouring districts of Billericay and Brentwood and Castle Point.

It provides:

– An extensive range of acute medical and surgical services at Basildon University Hospital
– Outpatients, diagnostics and a day surgery unit at Orsett Hospital
– Diagnostic services (x-ray and phlebotomy) at the St. Andrew’s Centre, Billericay

Looking at daily statistics of coronavirus-related deaths below, what conclusions can we bring?

First of all, please let me make it clear that even one death is of course a tragic loss and my condolences go out to anyone who has lost a loved one and thoughts are with anyone who has been affected by the coronavirus.

It is important for us at YT to look at the statistics to try and paint an overall picture.

Between the April 9th – 15, six out of seven daily rises in coronavirus-related patient deaths were in double figures – 11, 11, 8, 14, 11, 10, 10 – with April 12th being the worst – with 14 deaths.

Following April 15th, there have not been any daily rises in deaths in double figures.

While there have still been significant rises, there have only been three days over the course of the following eleven in which the number of coronavirus-related patient deaths was above six deaths.

April 24th was the worst day since April 15th, with there being nine coronavirus-related deaths confirmed on the day.

It is also important to note that since April 15th, there have been four days where the daily rise has been four or below.

April 17 – 2 deaths, April 20- 4 deaths, April 21- 3 deaths, April 23- 1 death.

Please see statistics below:

April 9- 11 deaths

April 10- 11 deaths

April 11- 8 deaths

April 12- 14 deaths

April 13- 11 deaths

April 14- 10 deaths

April 15- 10 deaths

April 16- 6 deaths

April 17- 2 deaths

April 18- 8 deaths

April 19- 6 deaths

April 20- 4 deaths

April 21- 3 deaths

April 22- 7 deaths

April 23- 1 death

April 24- 9 deaths

April 25- 6 deaths

April 26- 5 deaths

While it is important to not jump to conclusions, there is evidence to suggest the number of confirmed coronavirus-related patients deaths at the trust is lowering. at least when compared to the period of days earlier in the month in double figures – April 9th – 15th.

It remains to be seen how things will progress of course but it is important to try and look at the overall daily statistics and trends in daily death rates.

Without looking at the overall daily statistics, it is very easy to jump to conclusions if there is a spike on a particular day.

YT recommends following Professor Karol Sikora on Twitter.

His tweet yesterday (26 April) read: “Fewest number of deaths reported for this month today at 413 vs the last 3 Sundays – 596, 737, 621.

“Don’t focus on the daily figures (good or bad), look to the trends. The peak is behind us. Work to do, but we are finally seeing significant progress on the mortality trend.”

YourThurrock’s thoughts are with those affected by the coronavirus.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.