A BY-ELECTION in early December. We have just had Black Friday. This could be Blue Thursday as they are predicting quite a low turn out. We mean really low (less than 20%).
That will not be the fault of the parties who have all been working very hard to win over the voters.
Here is our overview.
As you may know, for many years, this was a solid Conservative ward. Some may go back a fair way and say it used to be a solid Labour ward. Labour, by their own admission, neglected the seat.
For a few years, Labour has promised to concentrate on the ward but never really, truly give it their undivided attention over the year.
Labour are clearly making a big effort this time. This appears to be partly buoyed by a good result in West Thurrock and South Stifford, partly due to the tenacity and enthusiasm of Polly Billington and her Labour team, who are also fighting a general election. They appear to have a real feel for the issues.
The question for Labour may be what will they call a success? They polled 372 votes in 2014, 385 in 2012 and 497 in 2011. It may be that 497 votes that will be the benchmark. That year, they gained 22% of the vote. In 2014, they gained 16% of the vote, so we would guess that would be happy with anything over that 22% mark.
If they want to win it and they probably won’t on Dec 4th, then they need a candidate, who is in for the long haul. John O’Regan could be that man.
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In many ways, UKIP have already been there and done it in Aveley. Ever since Robert Ray broke through in 2012, they have used this ward as a launch pad for success.
That success saw an electoral scorched earth in May 2014 including the victory of the late Maggie O’Keefe-Ray.
The candidate to replace Maggie is Tim Aker. Tim is East of England UKIP MEP and also the prospective parliamentary candidate for the general election in May 2015.
Skilled, articulate, intelligent and a damn fine Darts player, Tim loves to campaign and just seems to relish the cut and thrust of local politics.
Such is the momentum of UKIP, that a win would be no surprise and a reduction on a percentage share of the vote, would be something that their opponents would grab on to. Maggie O’Keefe-Ray got 47% of the vote in May.
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There was a time that the three Conservative councillors in Aveley, personified the Thurrock Conservative groups strengths. That seems a long time ago. The Tories look a long way off winning this one.
They may have to measure success in fending off Labour. The Tories gained 29% of the vote in May and would not want to see that drop.
Their candidate, Teresa Webster, certainly seems to enjoy getting stuck into local issues and has certainly been instrumental in getting a number of local issues addressed.
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And finally, Eddie Stringer. It is alway good to see an Independent running in Aveley. We don’t know why, it just is…Eddie sat on the community forum and as you will have seen from our interview, he feels passionately about the area and is from the school which is concerned that the village is being turned into an industrial suburb.
Eddie knows he probably will not win, but if he can pick up two hundred votes then it will be interesting to see who suffers.
Conclusion.
UKIP hold but a reduced percentage of the vote.
May 2014: 47%
Dec 2014: 42%
Conservative: Second but reduced and Labour increase percentage share.
