Ward by Ward: Aveley and Uplands

IF this reporter had a pound for every time he got his Aveley and Uplands prediction wrong he would be running www.yourtaxexile.com.

We thought the Thurrock Independents would have enough in the locker to see off David Van Day. We were wrong but then again, like on other occasions, the Tories put in the hard yards and like other occasions it now looks, when there is a borough-wide local election to fight, the resources are stretched a bit thin.

We also did not think Tim Aker would back in May but we underestimated his local popularity. Which brings us to the incumbent Peter Smith. Cllr Smith has worked hard over there last four years. He has been one of UKIPs and then Thurrock Independents really successes. When he stands up in a meeting, you know a valid point will be made or a difficult question will be asked.

You also know that cllr Smith will be well known in the area, both Aveley and the Uplands. We get the feeling that cllr Smith and his colleague, Luke Spillman will be working hard in the ward. They have also been in tune with many of the issues in Aveley, from lorries in the high street, the lower Dartford Crossing and their support for Aveley FC.

The Tories have moved cllr Colin Churchman from a safe-ish Stanford East and Corringham Town over to his old stomping ground. He was a councillor and was also mayor when he represented the ward. He has also stood as an Independent. Cllr Churchman has not been in the best of health and we wonder if he has had the strength to campaign like he used to.

A 383 Thurrock Indy majority in May 2018 turned into a Conservative majority eleven months later but this May, all bets may be off. Irrespective of all that, we think cllr Smith has enough of a solid reputation to keep this seat and that would be a big boost for them.

YT Prediction: Thurrock Independents Hold

Aveley and Uplands

Colin Churchman (Conservative)
Charlie Curtis (Labour)
Peter Smith (Thurrock Independents)

By-Election: March 2019

David Van Day (Cons): 773
Alan Field (Thurrock Independents): 551
Charlie Curtis (Lab): 394
Tomas Pilvelis (Lib-Dem): 55

Maj: 222

Local Election May 2018

Tim Aker (Thurrock Independents) 1037
David Van Day (Cons): 653
Rafa Zak (Lab): 570
Peter Curtis (Ukip) 141

Maj: 383