THE more we consider what people will vote on in 2016, the more we are convinced that they may well, if they turn out at all, vote on traditional lines.
Candidates tell us that matters such as Europe, the performance of Jackie Doyle-Price, Jeremy Corbyn, are not really coming up.
With that in mind, you get the feeling that Labour voters will vote Labour, Tories will vote for the Tories and as for UKIP, they need to be wary that those who gave up voting until 2014/15, come back out.
As for Chafford, we have to say that interviewing Labour candidate, Umar Kankiya, was a welcome breath of fresh air.
So what of the incumbent? Garry Hague used to be leader of Thurrock Council but that was six years ago. Since then, he has sat passively on the back bench of the council meetings. He may have spoken once or twice. Hie is on a committee but his attendance is, what they call patchy.
According to sources, Garry is only standing as no-one else wanted. We e-mailed him and asked him about what it is, that he has done, over the last four years, that he wants voters to consider. We have not had a reply.
So there were are. Funny thing democracy.
The Conservatives won by 174 in 2012 (50%); 395 in 2015 (47%). So that gives you an idea.
YT prediction: Cons hold: 140
Chafford and North Stifford
Garry Hague – Conservative
Umar Kankiya – Labour
James Mower – UKIP
