Introduction
And so welcome to our coverage of the 2012 Thurrock local elections. We aim to bring you the most comprehensive coverage of the election campaign.
As usual, we will produce our ward by ward analysis and cover the themes, issues and personalities that dominate the election campaign.
State of Play
Labour have 24 seats, Conservatives have 22 seats. 2 are Independent. One seat is vacant.
This will be the last election for two years as next year is a ‘fallow” year.
Key Wards
Ockendon, Stanford West, Stanford East and Aveley.
Labour have out a lot of effort in Ockendon and believe that they have the right man in Harris Academy teacher, Martin Kerin whilst the Conservatives have Barry Johnson on the comeback trail.
Stanford West produces a fascinating stand-off between (now don’t get confused) former Tory leader who defected to Labour in 2009 (Terry Hipsey), Independent candidate (who was interviewed by the Tories) Terry Piccolo and the former deputy mayor who stood down after the Winegate scandal, Eddie Hardiman.
Whilst Aveley, which has a micro-climate all of its own, could also see the rise of an Independent candidate as many locals (and some surprising politicians) get behind community champion, Alan Field.
Stanford West and Aveley could well see the “George Galloway” factor.
And let us not forget that former deputy leader of the Thurrock Conservatives, Gareth Davies is standing as an independent in West Thurrock.
Issues
One can easily forget, if you live in a political bubble, that it is primarily all about local and national issues. With the national economy still in a parlous state, the Tories have to expect that to be reflected in the vote. They will also hope that the long list of PR gaffes nationally (Granny Tax, fuel crisis etc, donations etc.) won’t last all April.
Locally, in no particular order: The local economy, crime, bus services, the bins, the green belt and community identity will all come under consideration.
The Parties
Labour
John Kent will be under pressure to deliver. Leaders since 2005, he has to deliver an overall control Labour administration. Ed Miliband has been into the borough and Ed expects.
John’s critics within his own party feel he has become too much like an officer.
His supporters say he has deftly and expertly controlled the council, sailed the ship through choppy waters, put it on a very sound financial footing. In the chamber, he is, to use the cricketing term, seeing the ball as big as a beach ball. Then again, the Tories keep bowling under-arm, so it is not difficult.
Across the borough, they will need to convince the public re the delivery of services and stress what they are fighting for.
They have good young candidates such as Martin Kerin, Richard Speight coming through and a number of established councillors with a sound record over the last four years (Oliver Gerrish, Lyn Worrall).
The lamentable record of Aaron Kiely (councillor for Caracas West) may come up. We shall see.
The Tories
Big big year. As opposed to the herding cats mentality of last year, the organisation has been put in the hands of councillor Mark Coxshall. His organisation of Stephen Metcalfe’s and latterly Jackie Doyle Price’s campaign in 2010 was expert.
Their launch (no invite for us….) was over-shadowed by the gaffe of having police officers and council officials on the front. Essex Police were less than pleased.
The pressure is on for leader Phil Anderson. Veteran Tories, behind the scenes have pleaded with Mike Revell to take over and bring James Halden in as deputy. They believe that the libraries argument is a calamity. That indeed, Labour’s argument makes economic common sense and is in very much in keeping with Tory political philosophy. Their concern is that cllr Anderson wouldn’t know the difference between Robert Peel and orange peel. The bottom line may be that they have posters which say: “Save our libraries” and that is a vote winner.
Again, they have lots of young candidates who inspire hope: Charles Key, Ben Gadsby, Letrois Bernard as well as former police officer Andrew Roast.
On the other hand, they may look at the list of those who have left and reflect. Or maybe not. As we said: it may all come down to the selection disaster in Stanford and the backing of Rev Alan Field by either: one, two, three or even four ex-Tories.
The Lib-Dems
There is a likelihood that come the next general election, the national party will be back down to single figures. That is a separate matter. In Thurrock, the roots of recovery were laid down last year by Luke Tyson and his team.
This year they have, for the first time in decades, a full slate of candidates.
Commenting on the candidates announcement, Chair of Thurrock Liberal Democrats, Luke Tyson, said ‘For the first time in 20 years, we’ll be fielding a candidate in every ward where there is an election. We have a host of great candidates who are looking forward to talking and listening to the residents of Thurrock.’
Can they win any seats: No but it will be interesting to see if Clare Jones in Little Thurrock Blackshots can make any inroads.
UKIP
Once again, a near to full slate. They keep the fire burning. Trouble is they have been very very quiet over the last eleven months. But they may well take hundreds of votes here and hundreds of votes there which may well impact on key Tory votes in the borough and who knows, perhaps Labour as the ebullient and combative Clive Broad stands agains the Labour leader in Grays Riverside.
Independents
This really could be the water-shed year for the Independents with Alan Field and Terry Piccolo standing. It could be the logical extension and development of the community forums. Or it could be a vote of no confidence in the Conservative group. We have already chronicled the fact that Terry Piccolo was interviewed by the Tories but we also understand that a number of former Tory councillors are backing Rev Field’s campaign.
BNP
Changed times since they took 24.6% of the vote in 2007. There are still, however, right wing votes out there. Last year, the Tories went for it in Aveley as they produced a leaflet that said “Say No to the European Union; St George’s Day to be a holiday and an end to political correctness. Some may say it worked as Maureen Pearce was elected. Question is: will they repeat that there or elsewhere?
National Front
Essex co-ordinator Bernadette Jagger polled three votes at a Leigh by-election. She said” “They were white votes.” Enough said.
Can’t wait to see the results, its better than any tv soap!
Now lets see how many candidates actually start to tread the pavements and canvass for votes, in 15 years of living in Thurrock I can count on one hand how many have knocked on the door.