WE have the feeling we may be returning to this one, so we thought we would crack on. And as we have just published our interview with independent candidate, Rev Alan Field, we thought it would be the right time.
Before we start, we always need to drum into our head, that for voters, many could not give two hoots for all the personalities involved. For them, it is all about services. Last year, we travelled from Fobbing to Aveley, talking to voters. In Aveley, it was all about local: Local bus services, the bins, local jobs. But it was also about a sense of place.
We know all wards have a unique sense of identity but Aveley even more so. The green belt seemed to concern a great deal of people. The good people have, over the years, turned out in their droves for meetings. Indeed, one protest ended up on ITN news in 2009.
Last year was a fascinating battle which Conservative, Maureen Pearce won by just 75 votes from former Tory mayor Colin Churchman, who was standing as an Independent.
Colin is not standing this year but he has pledged his support to Rev Alan Field. We have written a lot about Alan already and his role at the heart of the community over many years.
The question is whether he can convince the voters who turned out for him, to turn out for Alan.
As we said, Alan also has the support of former councillor John Cowell and retiring Tory councillor, Amanda Prevost. That may not naturally translate into votes. Many people may look dimly upon such perceived “disloyalty” or simply not vote.
But we should not discount Labour. Cliff Holloway has also really established a reputation in Aveley. He put 150 votes on last year and he might, getting his message across, just put a few more on.
There is also the personal loyalty and the fruits of hard yards that Tim Aker put in for his 500 plus votes. Again, maybe those people won’t turn out.
You have the feeling that there are 600 Tory votes out there. The question is how many have eroded over the past two years? This is mid-term and the incumbent party, nationally, usually take a hit.
So, what of the Tories. They have started well, with an attack that Alan Field is not a reverend. Nice one.
The Tory candidate, Baptist pastor Colin Adams hit the headlines in 2008, when he received over £250,000 after being attacked by a student in his classroom four years earlier.
Last year, the Tories produced a right wing leaflet that looked like it was designed to fill the gap in the market left by the absence of the BNP. The argument still stands: the BNP polled 562 in 2007, 521 in 2008 and 369 in 2010. There may be still at least 250 votes going to someone who feels inclined to lurch a little bit closer to the right.
In 2006, 1825 voters turned out. In 2007: 1815, 2008: 1857. In 2010 (Gen Elect): 3806. In 2011, it was 2247. We think the Churchman/Aker factor brought out around 400 extra voters. We don’t think they will come out again and it will slide back to 1950.
On that basis, we think it will be a:
Cons hold: Maj 40
The full list of candidates is:
Alan Field
Independent
Clifford John Holloway
Labour
Colin Leslie Adams
Conservative
Paul Blake Burton
Liberal Democrats
Robert David Victor Ray
UK Independence Party
Does anyone know whatever happened to the former Tory leader Neil piess ?. I thought with all of his researching experience aveley would have a hard working person.
Are you referring to Neil Pearce the Tory guy who helped out in Averley and other parts of Thurrock. I believe He approach me last year saying he was helping in the campaign against Colin churchmen to take him out of the running so I wish Alan fields all the best has his the right man for the job and I believe he took cheap shots at Mr churchmen
Wasn’t he a conservative councillor for Aveley and Uplands ward at Thurrock Council some ten years ago but had to resign because he had personal problems and his work on his laptop was completely washed out.
hot press you are a very naughty person.
Neil Pearce should be praised as he was such a hard working Councillor he even did ward work in the bath. Shame about the laptop but at least it was nice and ‘clean’.
The bigger question is why are so many former Conservatives in Aveley now campaigning against their party?
We have former Conservative activist Tim Aker campaigning for UKIP, former Conservative Mayor Colin Churchman suporting Mr Fields, former Aveley Conservative Councillor John Cowell campaigning for Mr Fields and current Conservative Councillor for Aveley Amanda Provost apparently supporting Mr Fields as wel!
Ed are you being naughty ? I like your blogs Ed you hit the nail right on the head lets be honest we are better of with an independent then a Tory in Aveley because you never see moreen Pearce out in the ward or Wendy Heard unless they need votes I believe moreen pearce son is trying his hand at being a reporter of BS —– let’s hope he does not fall in the bath when his looking at new research get back to me ED steam my glasses up