Election Diary: Who Will Win Thurrock?

INTRODUCTION

IT HAS been a General Election unlike any other. So much of it under the media glare, so much that it can give you a disproportionate view on how things are and how things will be.

We have followed dozens of candidates, local and national. We have interviewed the Foreign Secretary, the Chair of the Conservative Party, Shadow Home Office Minister and several other senior ministers.

We have stood elbows out with Sky, BBC and Channel 4, (always helps to have a 6ft 7 cameraman), sat chewing the fat with The Observer and the News of the World and also spent a few lonely hours in car parks when it is just us and the Thurrock Gazette.

We have seen candidates and footsoldiers do everything asked of them and more.

We have seen the public bemused, berate, barrack and look bored as the politicians beseech them to vote for them.

This is how we see it (usual conditions apply).

Carl Morris (Lab)

Carl couldn’t have done anymore. He has played to his strengths and kept this weaknesses away from inspection. He has been out on the streets every day and backed by a hard working team has given everything to extract every pledge from the key streets, key houses, key voters.

The mantra has been “Our Local Voice”. He says it because he means it.

Carl was handed the great catchphrase by David Cameron when he said: “If you want to see how a Tory run administration would perform then just look at any Tory-run council.” Carl has spent the campaign reminding people of all the well documented deficencies of the council as a gilt-edged reason not to vote Conservative.

Carl’s grasp of local issues from the Tilbury Ferry, academies, local policing, funding for sport, council budgets are well documented. His ability to take the next step up and grasp the loftier issues of national insurance charges, foreign policy, electoral reform are less clear.

But his confidence since being selected last year has slowly been eroded as Gordon Brown’s campaign has been beset by difficulties. The arrival of David Cameron on the front pitch at Palmer’s was another “crisis of faith” moment as Mr Cameron declared that they were now targeting Thurrock.

The key question is whether all the events can conspire to erode the majority of 6,375 gained by Andrew Mackinlay in 2005? One has to remember that Mr Mackinlay may have lost votes over the Iraq war and Dr David Kelly.

For many people in Thurrock they are Labour voters through and through. It is those streets that matter. The election has been won or lost in Marine Drive, Purfleet, South Road, South Ockendon, Argent Street, Grays and perhaps most pertinently, Hall Avenue, Aveley.

Having quit as a councillor, Carl has staked everything on this campaign. There is no-one who has the welfare of the people of Thurrock closer to their heart.

Jackie Doyle-Price (Cons)

There are two pieces sitting waiting on the draft section of the yourthurrock site. One if Jackie wins, one if she loses. Basically, if Jackie wins then she will have been the architect and the beneficiary of tactics and events that have conspired nicely to see her win.

Two years ago, we spotted Jackie out campaigning in Lodge Lane. It was in our first week. We were convinced that we would be seeing Jackie every week. We were wrong. Thurrock was only Target Seat 125 and, unlike marginals such as Harlow wasn’t getting any Ashcroft money. However, it doesn’t take money to be seen at community forums, summer fayres, business awards etc.

Then again, Jackie may have had to play a cagey game as she couldn’t allow herself to be identified with a clearly struggling and divided Tory council.

Anyone interviewing Jackie could see that she had a clear grasp of the intellectual and political challenges facing the country. What she lacked was enough footsoldiers. There have been the loyal ones such as Eddie Hardiman, Ben Maney, Joy Redsell, Rob Gledhill, Anne Barrow and Charlie Key but the team seemed light by twenty or thirty.

But Jackie has kept to the script of “under the radar” and has also, like any good middle distance runner known when to sense that the race was changing and around two weeks ago, the race came back to Jackie.

David Cameron’s visit was part of  number of high profile visits which have imbued the Tories with real confidence. So much so that they have canvassed in Tilbury and even re-ignited the campaign in Aveley.

The big question is, whether it has all been too late to claw back the 6,000 votes?

Carys Davis (Lib-Dem)

There is no doubt that we have witnessed a future star in politics. Carys has also clearly enjoyed the campaign from meeting the people out on the street to “winning” the hustings at St Peter’s church. The staff at Rape Crisis centre (Sericc) were also impressed by her ability to absorb information so quickly.

The big question is whether Carys can improve on 2oo5 when Earnshaw Palmer gained 4,770. Labour are convinced that they will not improve upon that however others see Carys crashing over the 7,000 mark. The question is: whose votes would Carys be “liberating” If anything, it will be in Chafford Hundred, which would be bad news for the Tories or perhaps, all across the constituency, Labour voters will turn to Nick Clegg as their saviour.

Clive Broad (UKIP)

Clive has again enjoyed the campaign, He has got his point across and is convinced that the big push this week when every home in the constituency will receive a UKIP newspaper will make inroads into the campaign. Again speaking to MEP David Campbell-Bannermen at the weekend, he saw Labour voters switching to UKIP at recent by-elections. But they are exceptional creatures.

The Tories are very clear what they will do with immigration (just look at our interview with Chris Grayling to see that) and that may convince enough Tories to see this as a moment to not waiver and push David Cameron over the 326 seats mark.

Emma Colgate  (BNP)

A year ago, the BNP launched their Euro campaign from the Thameside as they saw Thurrock as the epicentre of their eastern region. A year later, Ms Colgate stepped down from her national role to concentrate on Thurrock however there has been no visits from Nick Griffin. One suspects there has been a falling out somewhere.

Arinola Araba (Christian Party)

Conclusion

There is no doubt that Labour should have replaced Gordon Brown with David Miliband around a year ago. Whether it is Gerald Ford in politics or Graham Taylor in football, once the media decide you are “gaffe-prone”, “beleagured” you have had it. At times, we still think back to 1992 and that John Major looked like a lame duck as well. We just have the feeling that people, once they enter the polling station are going to revert to the two party system.

It is going to mean a long and anxious night for Mr Morris. The first returns will come in. Sunderland will be an indicator as a 12% swing is needed and then Ed Balls in Morley (10,000) It may even mean a recount but we believe that the local man has done enough to secure his path to Westminster.

Prediction: Lab Hold (1,250 maj)