A DAMNING report by MPs from the Transport Select Committee is calling on Government to reconsider expensive complex road projects, and road projects don’t come more expensive or complex than the proposed Lower Thames Crossing.
Part of the new report focuses on a need for better reporting and transparency on things like original and current costs. The proposed LTC was originally estimated to cost £4.1bn, but has since seen the cost rise up to £9bn with some, including MPs predicting the cost would actually rise to £10bn+++.
The cost and whether the proposed LTC would offer value for money is something that has been questioned by the National Audit Office previously, and more recently has been a hot topic during the LTC Development Consent Order (DCO) Examination. After questioning National Highways about calculations of the estimated cost one examiner saying that the data used to estimate costs seemed to be very much underestimated and wildly out of touch. The Benefit Cost Ratio for the project has dropped from 3.1 down to 1.22, officially rating as low value for money, and that is after adjustments, the basic BCR is just 0.48.
Laura Blake, Chair of Thames Crossing Action Group said:
“We welcome the Transport Select Committees damning report, and agree that it is time to reconsider expensive complex enhancement projects, like the proposed Lower Thames Crossing. This report, alongside others like the recent Climate Change Committee report that calls for an urgent review into road building in England just go to show that Government cannot keep pushing ahead with road building. Projects like the proposed £10bn+ Lower Thames Crossing are hugely destructive and harmful, not fit for purpose, and need to be scrapped now. We need and deserve better.“
The proposed LTC is highly controversial, with campaigners and even local authorities voicing concerns during the examination that the project would not solve the problems that we all suffer due to the Dartford Crossing, and indeed fails to meet the 7 scheme objectives.
The current crossing has a design capacity of 135,000 vehicles per day, yet regularly sees 180,000 per day. This mean that there would need to be a reduction of more than 25% to bring the crossing back below design capacity. However, analysis of official traffic modelling concluded that the reduction would be as low as 4% in the morning peak hour and 11% in the pm peak hour.
Even National Highways own prediction says that the reduction would be 19% if it opened in 2030, dropping to 13% by 2045, which would not be enough to bring the Dartford Crossing back below capacity. That figure is also based on a 2030 opening of the LTC, when the reality is government announced a two year delay earlier this year, meaning that even if the new crossing is granted permission the opening would not be prior to 2032 now. Historically the amount of traffic reduction at the current crossing that the LTC would provide drops around 1% each year the project is pushed back, so it would likely be 17% by the time the LTC opens, if permission is granted.
While campaigners, local authorities and others continue to present evidence to the Examiners, Government have until 27th September 2023 to respond to the Transport Select Committee’s call to reconsider expensive complex road projects like the proposed LTC.
