TWELVE years ago, Labour retained this seat by just ten votes. The turnout was an abysmal 14% but it was a warning to Labour. Looks like they did not heed it because at the next election, in 2004, famously known as the “Night of the paper candidates” the Tories had a hat-trick of councillors (there were three seats up).
In 2006, Andy Smith took the seat by 16 votes from the BNP and he has been there ever since. The Tories have slowly ebbed away as Labour won by 198 in 2007, 82 in 2008. Cllr Smith was returned again by 435 in 2010 (in a poor year for Labour nationally). They won by 373 in 2011 and 494 in 2012.
So, Labour have really made it into a stronghold and there is no indication that former leader of the council, Andy Smith is about to let go.
Cllr Smith, joined by his two younger colleagues, cllrs Victoria Holloway and Oliver Gerrish, by all reports, puts in the hard yards, focusses on key areas in quite a large ward (6,500 pop).
Sometimes, you think this might be the type of ward that UKIP might have a chance in and maybe they have. Candidate Maurice Kelly and his colleague have been ploughing away down there. They did come second in 2012 but can they really claw back that 400 lead Labour have on them.
This may be a case of close but no cigar and a moral victory for UKIP.
YT prediction: Lab hold: 235
For full details of all candidates click here
he has got my vote.