AT ONE time, this was going to be a very short piece. It went like this; "We don’t know"
However, that would have been a bit of a cop-out. We have already written two pieces for South Basildon and East Thurrock as well as Harlow (www.yourharlow.com). They felt like a walk in the park compared to Thurrock.
So here we go.
Tim Aker: UKIP
We will start with the bookies favourite: UKIP. It has been quite a journey that 29-year-old Tim Aker has been on. Five years ago, we interviewed Aveley resident Tim Aker as he trudged around the streets of Aveley. On May 6th 2010, Tim polled 553 votes in the ward election. He came fourth in a field of five. It was still a good result and laid the foundations for what we may see on May 8th.
Tim has fought a very professional campaign with his loyal band of believers. We say believers because there is something of the 19th century non conformist religion about the whole thing. We half expect them to pack off to Patagonia if they don’t get their way (See Bala for details).
Having said that, the successful candidates often tap into a psyche. Over in Harlow, Robert Halfon has done it, someone like Stephen Timms in East Ham or Jacob Rees Mogg in North Somerset.
For Tim, it is the people of Aveley and South Ockendon who, believe, rightly or wrongly, that Thurrock life has been imposed upon them.
Many repeat that line: "We want our country back" You can satirise and say that in their hearts there are many just want it to be 1966 every day.
But for others, especially, up in Aveley, it may be about planning applications, about what people put in the soil. Issues that really fused a sense of resentment.
All we are saying is that Tim Aker has found quite a distinct political micro-climate which forged with his political skills could be a winning combination.
As we said before, he has an excellent political radar and is able to pick up on a subject and run with it, very quickly.
Yep, there are massive holes in his policies. When it comes to crime, it seems to be a "Put the bobby back on the beat" and education seems to be ‘Bring back grammar schools." So, it looks like George Dixon and Mr Chips are going to make a comeback!
But, from the minute he put his office in Orsett Road, Grays, it has been a great campaign and has to be applauded.
What could count against him? Well, after the success of May 2014, it looked like UKIP would go from success to success. But they lost by 282 votes in West Thurrock and South Stifford.
Why? Perhaps one of the reason is that Polly Billington’s team are very good at the ground war. Polly has not been drawn into any wars of words or grandstanding but instead, believes in the appliance of electoral science.
Go into their office and you will see the hordes of teams working the phones, before they work the streets.
That may be a factor.
The UKIP hoardings may be distracting us and may flatter to deceive. They may act as a red rag to a bull. There may be a lot of voters who may say: "That’ll be right"
Speaking of Polly.
Polly Billington
Following Andrew Mackinlay was and is a hard act to follow. Just ask Carl Morris.
So, when Ed Miliband’s anointed one became the candidate, one of the hardest tasks was converting the locals Labour lot. A really hard task but that may say more about them than Polly.
Sometimes, Polly may be making a point about zero hour contracts or apprenticeships and it would be a point that Andrew Mackinlay would have made but sometimes it sounded different.
As we have just said, it has been an astute campaign by Polly and she has probably surprised a lot of people. She has really impressed in the hustings and on the doorstep.
One of the key factors for Polly is getting the BAME vote out. This is the borough with the largest increase in BAME between the census of 2001 and 2011 in the UK.
That is a massive vote that has to be mobilised. There is also a massive assumption that the BME population will vote for Polly.
As we said, we just go back to that West Thurrock By-Election. We just go back to the fact that UKIP failed to win all those wards from Purfleet to Tilbury back in 2014 and wonder if that is a massive factor?
Jackie Doyle Price.
Well it is going to go two ways for Jackie. if she wins, it will be a triumph. Even though she is the defending MP, it will still feel like the underdog has won and that she has made a comeback.
The campaign has been simple. Get on open top bus, parade around Thurrock and then walk the streets campaigning.
Once again, you have to applaud the gusto and commitment to the cause. We meet many businesses who have praised the work of Jackie Doyle Price. Why they haven’t used these endorsements is beyond us.
Jackie is the embodiment of working class Conservatism that is crying out for five more years (to finish the job).
The tactic of making the council the devil incarnate is a good tactic. She probably doesn’t believe it but just look at any story that we run (see Grays High Street or Treacle Mine roundabout for details).
We just wouldn’t count out JDP. You do at your peril. And we think that there may be late switchers.
Lib Dems
It took them two years to tell us they had a candidate. He is called Rhodri Jamieson-Bell. He polled over 11,000 votes in Islington North last year and he will probably poll less than 1,000 on Thursday.
All People’s Party
Abi Kristilolu made a few early appearances and seemed to be an earnest and kind gentlemen.
Independent
Daniel Munyambu
As above really. Had a lot of interesting things to say about Basildon Hospital and health promotion. We also wish him well.
Cannabis is Safer Than Alcohol
Jamie Barnes.
We enjoyed Jamie’s repartee and we hope this isn’t the last we hear or see of Jamie. Hopefully, we will catch u with him tomorrow.
Prediction
Lab gain: But it will be close. 400 maj
We think Labour might sneak this one.
We think UKIP may have made a road for their own back with the publicity and force a high turnout.
We think there may be a late switch to the Conservatives.
Of course, we thought Labour would win by 1100 in 2010.
Whatever you think, go out and vote. It is really important.
