HERE is an update – regarding the risk of torrential downpours and thunderstorms for us here in the East of England during tomorrow.
Very warm and very humid air is expected to arrive across many eastern and southern parts of the UK during tonight. This increasing warmth and moisture increasing the likelihood of some high rainfall totals falling over a short space of time.
For our region, the main risk of impacts from thunderstorms may well occur in two waves. The first wave during Thursday morning and early afternoon – as a scattering of potentially severe thunderstorms move northwards. There is a further risk of thunderstorms developing later in the afternoon and then into the evening on Thursday, with these move eastwards.
To highlight the risk of impacts from any thunderstorms and torrential downpours, a Met Office Yellow Warning of Rain has been updated. This Warning still includes all of the East of England within a broader warning area that covers many parts of England and Wales – and is now valid from 0600 Thursday until 02000 on Friday.
The Warning now brings a Low Likelihood of Medium Impacts – and means there could be localised surface water flooding, especially if downpours fall over urban areas, with difficult driving conditions and disruption to transport also possible. Lightning and large hail are additional hazards which could lead to isolated power outages.
As with any showery situation, some places will miss the storms and remain dry. However, where any thundery downpours do occur, they could be slow-moving, with around 25 to 30mm rain of rain falling in an hour – or 50 to 80mm in 2 or 3 hours. It is possible that the higher rainfall totals may be associated with storms that develop later during the afternoon and into the evening on Thursday.
Rainfall totals are likely to very localised, with large differences in amounts falling – and over fairly short distances. Meanwhile, the Flood Guidance Statement remains ‘Yellow’ to cover the risk of surface water flooding and flooding in small fast responding and urban catchments.
It stays warm on Friday, as the main threat of any impacts from thunderstorms and torrential downpours moves away during the early hours of Friday. Looking ahead to the weekend, temperatures are expected to gradually ease downwards but there will still be some warm sunshine – along with a scattering of showers on Saturday and Sunday.
As ever, please keep up to date with the latest Met Office forecast and Warning details – as well as monitoring any local thunderstorm developments and their movement, via the rainfall radar images on Hazard Manager, the Met Office website or through the Met Office App.
Feel free to get in touch if you have any questions or queries. If you require an immediate 24/7 response for urgent enquiries please ring the duty forecaster on 01392 886095.