WE thought we would take a tricky one to start off with.
This has been a strange seat over the years. In 2008, the Tories (Amanda Arnold) won by 200. In 2010, they (Lynn Carr) won again by 236. In 2011, Labour took it back, winning by just 87. The Tories won the seat by 91 in 2012. It did make you wonder. Barry Johnson ran the same campaign in 2011 as he did in 2012. He loses one by 87 and then wins the next year by 91! It is, as they say,a funny old game.
The incumbent, Lynn Carr is one of those (in our opinion) unsung heroes in local democracy that goes about her business of helping her residents on issues such as mould, fly-tipping, lorries in South Road to name just a few. Lynn doesn’t say an awful lot in council meetings but attends as well as attends committees as well. It is clear that the Ockendon public (and the Belhus ones as well) have come to rely on Lynn and place great faith in her.
Labour haven’t really had a decent councillor since Barrie Lawrence. The debacle of cllr Aaron Kiely has been documented both locally and nationally. Will it impact on the election here? Probably not. It has been a shame for Barrie who felt that all his years of hard work were put at risk by the absentee councillor.
The Labour candidate, Terry Brookes, looks like the type of candidate that could restore a bit of pride for Labour in Ockendon. As you can see from our interview, he has been plugging away in the ward, in an under the radar campaign, that is focussing on the “cost of living crisis”.
UKIP have one of their loyal foot soldiers in Jan Baker standing. It could be the case that they will take votes off both candidates this time. UKIP only polled 300 votes in 2012. They may well double that but we doubt that they will get more than 900 votes. In 2011 and 2012, the winning candidate has polled over 900.
YT prediction: Cons hold by 40.
A full list of candidates can be found here
Lyn is an excellent local councillor, shame she bats for the Tories though.
The debacle of cllr Aaron Kiely has been documented both locally and national
But not a word about Wendy Herd who has not shown up has many times
jmw i am with you on that one
Ockendon ward is a ward of 2 halves – strong Conservative vote on the Brandon Groves estate and strong Labour vote on the Flowers estate. Winning is normally about getting your core vote out.
Lynn has a strong personal following on the Flowers estate where she has helped many Council tenants with repairs and the mould problem and the ongoing saga of parking around the station.
In any other election year I would predict that if Lynn can get both the core Conservative vote out and those who will vote for her as a person then she should hold onto the seat. However the European Elections are being run at the same time and we have the ever growing UKIP vote.
How UKIP will influence who ultimately wins will depend on how many votes they take from Labour and the Conservatives. You will know if the Conservatives are worried they could lose Ockendon if in the last week or so of the campaign they issue anti-UKIP smear leaflets or extreme right wing anti-immigration leaflets. They have done this before in Ockendon (who recalls the Conservatives
gypsy petition and immigration petition?).
That is because this is an article on Ockendon. We may or may not refer to Aveley Cons councillors when we come to Aveley.
Councillor Carr was recently overheard to say “vote for anyone but UIP”!
That’s how worried the Tories are.
Interesting interviews, however it would seem that Mr Brookes only breezes into Ockendon on very rare occasions! he claims to have spoken to about 1000 people whilst canvassing, maybe they are the same 1000 that voted for Aaron Kiely?
Ms carr on the other hand obviously knows her Ockendon and if I am totally honest i have only ever had her and barry johnson knock on my door, and I have to admit I did feel that they were listening as she says in her interview.
Keep up the good work lyn
Sorry. That was meant to be UKIP. I’d make a lousy proof-reader!
Two very different and revealing interviews. According to the sitting councillor the local issues are being brought up, but according to the Labour challenger everyone is talking about the cost of living. This brings me back to the Stifford Clays by election, where according to the Labour candidate everyone was talking about zero hours contracts!! I do get the impression that for Labour it is national first, local second.
For what it’s worth, I’ve never voted Conservative and would struggle to do so but I thought Lynn Carr came across as genuine, passionate in that video and seems like just the kind of person you would want on a Council. I doubt I could vote Conservative, but would definitely consider voting for Lynn Carr on the basis of the interview above and her previous work, I wish she was my councillor. If I am thinking that way, I imagine some Ockendon residents must be thinking the same.
Thats a good comment Horndon
I thought it odd that many people would mention the cost of living on the doorstep over some local issues. However I understand that for Labour they need to focus on the national picture. The problem they have there is people are not stupid and know that the UKs national problems are as much to do with Labour policies as well as Coalition ones.
Ockendon really is a seat of two halves and whilst Lyn (and Barry) must get most of the vote on Brandon Groves it is clear that residents on the more Labour leaning side of South Road are putting the person over the politics which is good news.
Agree with previous comments. Regardless of how one feels about politics at the national level, there is no doubt that Lynn Carr is a superb councillor, and has done a fantastic job for local people.
Question to editor are you still trying to get interviews with UKIP regarding local elections?
Terry Brookes is a bit of a legend in the Tesco express shops around here. I know a few people he has stood up for. A lot of people are gutted that he took a step back from his union stuff to spend time on the election and hope he picks it up again soon. Lot of shop managers are scared when he represents people cos he is not frightened to say what he thinks and knows about rights etc